Texans know a good bit about the battles that have been fought here.
Goliad. The Alamo. San Jacinto. Sabine Pass. Adobe Walls.
Here’s a flash for you … maybe. Texas might be about to witness another type of battle not seen in the Lone Star State since, oh, I don’t remember.
I’m going to cite a public opinion political poll by first stipulating that we’re a long way from the next presidential election. Which means any poll today that seeks to project how a November 2020 race will turn isn’t worth the paper on which it is printed.
Get this: Donald Trump at this moment is in actual danger of losing Texas’s electoral votes to any number of Democrats who might run against him next year. According to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, the president is virtually tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, one of the thundering herd of Democrats seeking their party’s nomination. The poll says Texans are roughly divided in half between Trump and whoever the Democrats might nominate.
Check out the Texas Tribune story here:
Furthermore, Biden and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke – another one of the Democrats in the presidential hunt – are leading the large field of contenders. O’Rourke, of course, became a national Democratic Party poster child after nearly beating Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2018 election for Cruz’s Senate seat. O’Rourke now is going for the biggest political prize of them all. Julian Castro, a former San Antonio mayor and former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, is another Texas in the race for the 202 Democratic nomination.
I long have hoped Texas might one day return to “battleground state” status. The last Democrat to win the state’s Electoral College vote was Jimmy Carter. That was in – gulp! – 1976. The Republican Party has taken ownership of every presidential race since then. Democratic presidential nominees haven’t even come close, although Bill Clinton made it a bit of a contest here in 1992, thanks in some measure to the presence of H. Ross Perot, the Northeast Texas banty rooster/high tech billionaire, on the ballot.
Many states rely on what they call “retail politics.” They enjoy meeting these candidates up close. Iowa and New Hampshire – two early presidential contest states – symbolize voters’ affection for that sort of politicking.
In the past, by the time the presidential parade has made the turn for Texas, the contests are usually already decided. So, Texas doesn’t get to bask under the TV lights that shine on those earlier primary states.
Then when the general election comes around, history tells us the major-party nominees don’t even bother coming here – except for those private fundraisers in places like Dallas, San Antonio or Houston.
That all might change in 2020. There might be a lot of hands-on, up-close, in-person political activity in Texas as Donald Trump and whoever runs against him seek to corral the state’s 38 Electoral College votes.
Might they show up in Collin County, where I live? Or would they deign to visit Commerce, with its population full of university students perhaps voting for the first time?
If you appreciate the give and take that can occur at town hall meetings with these candidates, or if you just want to see the president of the United States and his major-party challenger up close, this might be the election cycle that will make it happen.
Let me stipulate once more: That’s if the polls we see today hold up over the next several months. If a week in politics is considered a “lifetime,” imagine how we might seek to equate the next year.
John Kanelis, former editorial page editor for the Amarillo Globe-News and the Beaumont Enterprise, is also a former blogger for Panhandle PBS in Amarillo. He is now retired, but still writing. Kanelis can be contacted via Twitter @jkanelis, on Facebook, or his blog, www.highplainsblogger.com.Kanelis' blog for KETR, "Piece of Mind," presents his views, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of KETR, its staff, or its members.
Kanelis lives in Princeton with his wife, Kathy.