President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, and voters are blaming him for costs that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
As a result, Republicans are likely to pay the price at the ballot box next month. One month out from Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted even more so in Democrats' direction.
They are favored to win the House, albeit with a fairly narrow majority. The Cook Political Report forecasts a five-to-15-seat net gain for Democrats at this point. That would give them in the range of 220 to 230 seats come January. (218 is needed for a majority.)
The Senate has shifted more dramatically over the last several months. Six seats have moved more in Democrats' direction since June in comparing Cook's ratings from then to now. When the cycle first started, the Senate was a long shot for Democrats. Now, it's within reach.
And that's largely because of the national mood, which is usually the case in midterms. Trump has just a 37% approval rating, according to an average of the polls. That's tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century.
The only other president to be that low in that time was George W. Bush in 2006. Back then, Iraq was spiraling into civil war, and Republicans lost both the House and Senate.
Trump is also facing a historic intensity of opposition; 53% in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing, the highest ever recorded in the survey. That's not a great sign for Republicans with Trump insisting that the midterm elections be about him.
As it is, history is unkind to the president's party in midterm elections. They usually lose about two dozen seats in the House and four in the Senate. It's even worse for the party in power when the president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's is now.
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There are multiple reasons Democratic gains might be limited, including mid-decade redistricting helping to insulate Republicans, fewer competitive-to-potentially competitive House seats, with most in districts Trump won in 2024, Republicans' campaign spending edge and the unpopularity of the Democratic Party.
That said, the headwinds the GOP is facing are very real.
Republicans have lost their edge on the economy
Economic issues continue to rate as the top problem and most important issue facing the country.
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy, but the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased costs on many goods and energy.
The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well and regular people struggling. Wealthy Americans are seeing increases in their wealth and stock portfolios, which are dominated by AI companies.
It's a different story for many others. Inflation is outpacing wages, meaning people's paychecks aren't taking them as far. There isn't a lot of turnover in the labor market, so if someone doesn't have a job or is looking to change, it's not an easy thing to do.
Plus, many are turning against AI. In many places, it's driving up utility costs and, along with the rising national debt, is making borrowing more difficult.
All of that is coming at a time when gas prices have skyrocketed because of the Iran war, and interest rates are creeping higher. In trying to tame inflation, the Federal Reserve hiked rates this fall. That makes it more expensive to borrow money and harder to pay for things like houses and cars.
The blame for that sort of thing often gets pointed directly at the White House and the party in power, and right now, that's Trump and Republicans.
An AP/NORC poll released last week, for example, found that 65% said higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump's policies than factors outside of his control.
Just 26% said they approved of the job he's doing on the economy.
An NBC News poll from September found that for only the second time in the Trump era, respondents said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy. (Though it was within the margin of error, the movement in the survey was clear.)
The only other time Democrats led on that question was in 2018 – the last midterm year when Trump was president. Democrats won 42 seats and control of the House then.
Add the widely negative views of the economy to the administration's immigration enforcement tactics, discretionary domestic cuts, the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's all firing up Democrats.
An opposition party enthusiastic to vote is a major warning sign for the president's party, especially in a midterm year.
History is not on the side of the president's party in midterm elections
In 18 of the 20 midterms since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats. On average, it's 26 seats, and it's nine more than that when a president's approval rating is below 50%.
The last three midterm elections have seen fewer lost House seats, despite unpopular presidents, in large measure because the universe of competitive districts is smaller.
The president, himself, though, has acknowledged multiple times the political headwinds his party faces in midterms.
"Whether you have a great president or not, Republican or Democrat, they don't do well in midterms," Trump said Friday at a campaign rally in Alabama. "I don't know why. Nobody's explained it."
There are reasons, however.
First, turnout in midterms is historically about 30% lower than in presidential years. So, the voters most fired up to vote show up in outsized numbers.
Anger is a great motivator, and often the voters more aligned with the opposition party most want to register their frustration. And, as noted earlier, the intensity of opposition to Trump is at historic levels.
A CBS poll out Sunday found Democrats with the enthusiasm edge – 84% of Democrats and 82% of independents surveyed said they are "definitely" going to vote compared to 77% of Republicans.
What's more, a key indicator of which party does well in midterms is pointing in the Democrats' direction. Surveys, including the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, ask a version of: "If November's election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district?"
In an average of the 2026 polls, Democrats have a nine-point advantage on this question, known as the congressional ballot test. Democrats tend to need a larger lead on the question historically than Republicans, given how districts have been drawn. But +9 is in the range of what Democrats need.
To put a finer point on it: in each of the past seven midterm elections, the party with the advantage on the congressional ballot has made gains.
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With independents and Latinos, two swing groups, souring on Trump during this second term, that's an added problem for Republicans in competitive districts.
Their jobs are made even tougher when Trump says things like "pretend" he's on the ballot and makes the election a "referendum" on him.
The White House's theory of the case is that Trump has had success turning conservatives out when he's on the ballot, and Republican candidates need them to show up in big numbers.
But whether that's enough is going to be tested. In swing districts and some key Senate races, candidates also usually need voters in the middle to win.
The bottom line is with less than a month to go until all the votes are in, the political compass is pointed in Democrats' direction. For multiple reasons, Democrats' gains might not be as big as similar numbers might indicate in past elections, but there is no doubt that, right now, they have the wind at their backs.
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