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The race for Texas' 23rd Congressional District is drawing national attention after a dramatic upheaval on the Republican side turned an already closely watched contest into a potentially more competitive general election.
Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales, whose re-election bid had been dogged by scandal, dropped out of the GOP primary runoff, clearing the way for Brandon Herrera to become the Republican nominee.
Now Democrat Katy Padilla Stout is arguing that the unexpected change gives her party a chance to compete in a district long seen as difficult, though not impossible, for Democrats to win.
The 23rd District stretches roughly 800 miles from San Antonio to El Paso along the Texas-Mexico border. Once known as a swing district, it has become more Republican over the last decade, in part because of redistricting.
University of Texas at San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor said Herrera's nomination creates an opening for Democrats, but only a narrow one.
"There is a chance," Taylor said. "It's not a big chance, but there's a chance."
Taylor said a more conventional Republican nominee would likely have been heavily favored. But he said 2026 may not be a typical election cycle, especially if national political conditions shift in Democrats' favor. He also said Herrera is not a typical Republican candidate.
Herrera, known online as the "AKGuy," built a following as a pro-gun YouTube personality. Democrats, including Padilla Stout, have used social media to circulate clips from his videos and podcasts that they say make him appear extreme.
One of those clips involves a discussion critical of the writing of Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf and Herrera mentions he owns a copy of the Nazi political manifesto. Another clip shows Herrera firing a German World War II-era machine gun and calling it "the original ghetto blaster."
Herrera's campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment from Texas Public Radio about the clips. Online, Herrera has said such videos are not meant to be taken seriously.
Padilla Stout said she does not view them as harmless.
"He is trying to normalize hate and desensitize people to that, therefore making discrimination easier," she said.
A former teacher, attorney and advocate for children in the foster care system, Padilla Stout said the district is more competitive than its Republican lean suggests. She argues that shifting Latino voting patterns could make the race more fluid than past results indicate.
She said her campaign is focused on issues that impact the everyday lives of struggling families in the border district.
"I am running on affordability. I am running on health care. I am running on access to education, universal pre-K, student loan reform," Padilla Stout said.
Still, Taylor said Padilla Stout faces serious financial disadvantages. He estimated she raised roughly $45,000 to $50,000 during the primary, while Herrera brought in well over $1 million, fueled in part by his large online following.
Taylor said Padilla Stout's chances would improve significantly if national Democrats decided to target the district and invest heavily. But with the party already eyeing other Republican-held seats, he said Texas' 23rd may still be viewed as a long shot.
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