President Trump's proposal for a 50-year mortgage comes as young North Texans are struggling to enter a housing market reshaped by more than a decade of rapid growth and rising costs.
Adults under 30 made up only 10% of Texas homebuyers in 2023 and local trends show why so few are managing to buy.
In the Dallas–Plano–Irving region, population growth has surged, with Housing and Urban Development data showing the area has added an average of 118,300 people per year since 2020. That's largely from people moving to North Texas, creating intense pressure on the housing supply.
Neighboring Collin and Denton counties rank among the fastest-growing in the country, adding even more demand to already tight markets according to HUD's Housing Market Condition analysis.
Population growth spikes demand, raises prices
That housing demand has driven steep price increases. In Dallas, the average new home price reached $510,500 in 2023, while existing homes rose to an average of nearly $500,000. Large annual jumps like this have pushed many first-time buyers out of contention.
Fort Worth followed a similar path, with the average existing home price hit $354,900 during the 12 months ending April 2024, still far higher than what many younger buyers can reasonably afford.
As prices climbed, higher mortgage rates pushed sales down. Dallas saw existing home sales fall 22% in 2023, while Fort Worth experienced existing home sales decline of 13% — signs that many would-be buyers stepped back rather than stretch their budgets even further.
Renters aren't catching a break either. Dallas' apartment vacancy rate rose from 5.9% in 2021 to 10.8% in 2023, even after more than 21,000 new units were added. Meanwhile, Fort Worth saw vacancies jump from 2.9% in 2022 to 8.0% in 2024 as nearly 10,000 new rentals became available.
Despite that additional supply, rents remain high enough that many young adults can't save meaningful down payments.
Population growth, rising prices, high interest rates and persistent rent pressure have created a market that looks very different from the one older generations entered. This is the backdrop for the 50-year mortgage debate.
Would a 50-year mortgage address affordability?
Laura Beyer-Cook, a board director with the Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS, says young buyers still want to own homes, but the market has moved beyond what many can reasonably afford.
"They're asking how to make homeownership attainable," she said, adding that affordability remains their top concern.
But Beyer-Cook says the 50-year mortgage proposal is too vague and warns that longer-term loans may come with steep interest costs that outweigh any initial savings.
Even with strong construction, the region hasn't kept up with demand. For the past seven years, Dallas issued a record 25,000 single-family housing permits, but that increase in homebuilding hasn't been able to match demand.
Fort Worth builders also saw an increase single-family permits with 12,500 in 2023, but rising costs, tariffs, and interest rates have slowed the production of more affordable starter homes, according to area economics and realtors.
For many young people, the impact is personal. Twenty-six-year-old Fort Worth renter Vincenzo Phelps has been saving for years but says the homes near his job now start around $300,000, far beyond what he expected when he began planning for homeownership.
"You can maybe find something a little cheaper, but you have to go really far out of the city," he said.
Phelps says a 50-year mortgage doesn't appeal to him either.
"It sounds nice to spread out the payments, but the reality is you're just going to be paying them back in interest," Phelps said. "I don't think I would take that option. Everyone wants to be debt-free, not paying off a house into their 70s."
Beyer-Cook says buyers should weigh their options carefully with a realtor.
"It really comes down to prospective buyers," Beyer-Cook said. "Going into it eyes open, really working with their realtor to determine what works best for their needs, not just for the short-term but the long-term."
But Michael Davis from the SMU Cox School of Business argues a 50-year term simply isn't worth it. The biggest drawback for Davis is the insurmountable amount of interest accrued over the course of a longer term loan.
"The way a mortgage works in the early years of the mortgage, they're mostly paying interest," said Davis. "They'd have relatively low equity for a number of years, and I'm talking 15 or 20 years, before they even begin to pay down a significant amount of the principal of the loan."
Davis doesn't see an overarching solution to the affordability problem for young homebuyers, but does see promise in smaller solutions aimed at tackling down payments at the beginning of a loan term.
"Something like a 529 account for college or even using your IRA to make a down payment on your home," said Davis. "They're not gonna change the world, but they may make it easier for some people to save to get a decent down payment together."
Both Davis and Beyer-Cook agree 50-year mortgages do little to solve the root cause of affordability issues and would not outright recommend the proposal.
"I can't think of anything short of a zombie apocalypse that would make the 50-year mortgage a good deal," Davis said.
Emmanuel Rivas Valenzuela is KERA's breaking news reporter. Got a tip? Email Emmanuel at erivas@kera.org. KERA News is made possible through the generosity of our members.
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