By now, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is something of an institution in Republican politics. This is his twelfth year leading the state, making him the country's longest-serving governor currently in office.
If reelected in November, Abbott would be on track to becoming Texas' longest-serving governor in state history.
While most polls currently show him in the lead over his Democratic challenger, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the race has tightened as election day draws near. It's one of several statewide races in Texas where Democrats seem to have more momentum than Republicans are used to.
Gov. Abbott specifically is used to decisive victories. When Abbott was first elected in 2014, he won by nearly 20 percentage points. Four years later, he won by 13 percentage points.
Even in his "tightest" reelection win against Democrat Beto O'Rourke in 2022, Abbott cruised to victory by more than 880,000 votes — nearly 11 percentage points over his challenger.
The Republican incumbent's confidence showed in his campaigning for most of this year, which Abbott spent most of not even mentioning Hinojosa by name.
But that changed last month when Abbott posted an ad on social media finally calling out his opponent.
"Don't let Gina deceive you, Texas," Abbott wrote.
It's a shift that came as Hinojosa rose in the polls. At the time, Texas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett responded on social media, saying Abbott's attacks showed he's nervous about the governor's race.
While most surveys still put him ahead, it's a narrower spread than Abbott is used to. Two recent polls even showed the Democrat with a narrow lead.
Publicly, the governor has dismissed those numbers. At a recent campaign stop in Gainesville, he responded to a question about them by CBS Austin, saying that "polls don't win elections, and polls are often wrong."
"What I'm confident about is exactly where my campaign stands and the outcome — that I'm going to win this race," Abbott said.
Yet that same day, his campaign announced a $12 million ad buy against Hinojosa, targeting her voting record on property taxes in the Texas Legislature.
One ad claims Hinojosa voted "more than 40 times for higher property taxes" in the state.
Abbott's campaign didn't respond to The Texas Newsroom's interview requests for this story, but Hinojosa disputed the narrative around her voting record in an interview with The Texas Newsroom.
"I have never, not once, voted to increase property taxes, and anyone who says otherwise is lying," Hinojosa said.
Hinojosa says the 40 votes cited by Abbott's campaign are being taken out of context, while Abbott's campaign argues they did give local officials more room to raise taxes.
Property taxes are just one aspect of Abbott's new push against Hinojosa. His campaign is also going after his opponent on education, public safety and policies around transgender Texans.
In a post on X last month, Abbott shared an image of Hinojosa where an American Flag was digitally altered into a Transgender Pride Flag. In it, he wrote that the Democrat wants to, quote, "turn your local public school into a gender transition camp."
So, how did Abbott go from barely acknowledging his challenger to this?
Kirby Goidel, a professor of political science at Texas A&M University, thinks the calculation inside Abbott's campaign likely sounded something like this: "Here is a candidate whose polling better than we think she should, and it's too close for comfort. And what we want to do is define her for voters."
That's something Abbott's campaign can have a big influence on, given the governor's significantly larger public profile and platform.
But headwinds for Republicans this election cycle, driven by economic concerns and issues like the state's data center boom, still present a challenge, Goidel said.
"You look at the Senate, the governor, the lieutenant governor, the attorney general — any of the races that we have polling on the generic ballot — they're all showing surprising Democratic strength, even when the candidates aren't very well-known," Goidel said.
Hinojosa also used Abbott's delayed focus on her to her advantage, according to Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
"Hinojosa took the space that Abbott gave her in the summer and really went hard after introducing herself to Democrats. And that's really what's made the race more competitive in a lot of ways," Blank said.
The Hinojosa campaign's strong focus around affordability could also be part of why she's polling stronger than expected. For his part, Abbott is also making the issue a central campaign theme. His Gainesville stop was part of a statewide tour focused on what he's calling the "Abbott Affordability Agenda" aimed at bringing down property taxes and other everyday costs.
Blank said that other Republicans on the ballot may be weighing down Abbott's reelection bid.
"Abbott's job is made more difficult by the fact that there are people on the ticket like Paxton, like Bo French, who've taken positions that make running statewide more difficult," Blank said. "But ultimately, Abbott is the leader of the party in Texas."
As Election Day approaches, Blank says more voters will start paying attention — including undecided ones.
Ultimately, no matter who wins, the tight polls means this'll likely be the most genuinely interesting governor's race Texas has seen in a long time.
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