Stories from Texas Stations

Talarico, Hinojosa lead among Latinos, fall short among rural voters, according to new poll

Houston Public Media News 88.7

Published October 23, 2026 at 2:24 PM CDT

A series of posters at the corner of Westheimer Road and Dunlavy Street in Houston on Oct. 23, 2026.

A series of posters urging residents to vote in the Nov. 3 Midterm election at the corner of Westheimer Road and Dunlavy Street in Houston. Oct. 23, 2026.

A new poll released Friday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic candidates James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa with double-digit percentage-point leads ahead of their respective opponents among Latino voters.

However, the same poll shows Republicans Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott ahead by an even wider margin among rural voters.

According to the poll, Paxton, the republican candidate for Senate and current Texas Attorney General, leads State Rep. Talarico by 38 percentage points — 65% to 27% — among likely rural voters. The race for Texas' next governor has a similar margin, with 66% of rural voters choosing incumbent Abbott over State Rep. Hinojosa, who was trailing 37 percentage points with 29%.

Latino voters favored the Democratic ticket, according to the poll. Talarico held an 11-percentage-point lead against Paxton, polling with 52% of likely Latino voters compared to Paxton's 41%.

Similarly, Hinojosa held a 10-percentage-point lead against Abbott, with 53% of likely Latino voters choosing her compared to 43% choosing Paxton.

During the 2024 presidential election, Texas Latino voters swung Republican and helped President Donald Trump win the state handily with 56.3% of the overall vote. In 2025, Texas Republicans relied heavily on this support among Latinos during their mid-decade redistricting efforts.

The divide between likely Latino and likely rural voters was also present in the race for lieutenant governor, according to the poll. Incumbent Republican Dan Patrick held a 40-percentage-point lead among likely rural voters while Democrat Vikki Goodwin held a 5-percentage-point lead among likely Latino voters.

The poll also found that rural voters had a more positive view of the direction of the country, with 56% believing the U.S. was headed in the right direction.

Latino voters had an overall opposite opinion, with only 38% believing the U.S. was headed in the right direction.

The Hobby School conducted the poll between Oct. 10 and Oct. 14 and surveyed 750 likely rural voters (with a margin of error of 3.48%) and 500 likely Latino voters (with a margin of error of 4.18%).

Disclosure: Houston Public Media is licensed to the University of Houston System. The university does not play a role in Houston Public Media's editorial decisions. Read our statement of ethics and standards here.