Ken Paxton and James Talarico are nearing the end of a contentious and expensive U.S. Senate race for a seat that may have little capacity to effect change.
The Senate is locked in partisan gridlock. Policymaking hasn’t been on the forefront for senators in recent years. Political polarization has led many voters to see compromise as a sign of weakness. Instead, senators have turned their focus toward building their profile on the national stage, using their seat as a launchpad for higher office.
Whoever wins the race will become the junior senator from Texas, a role with a good title but not necessarily the strongest position to effect legislative change or snare assignments to powerful committees. There are pluses and minuses.
For Talarico, being a senator might put him squarely in the national limelight. The state representative already has gained some recognition beyond Texas on the campaign trail. As the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas in decades, he could become an influential voice of opposition to President Donald Trump. And he’s been mentioned as a potential candidate for vice president in 2028.
Paxton would come to the office from a different vantage point. He already has a substantial presence on the national stage. He has used the power of the Texas Attorney General’s Office to champion conservative social causes and Trump’s agenda.
Paxton has the freedom to set his own agenda and pursue it without having to compromise as attorney general. Being a freshman senator in a body of 100 would likely lessen his political influence, said Joshua Blank, the research director at the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
“As attorney general, he likely had much more impact over not just Texas policy, but even federal policy, than he [would] as a senator,” Blank said.
National profile
Even though Paxton may lose his broad power to shape policy, running for higher office is part of the natural order in politics, Blank said.
“Politicians, especially successful ones, have a drive to increase, if not their influence, their prominence,” he said. “And when seats open up that are seen as being higher up the ticket, there is always a candidate from an office who is willing to move up.”
The Senate has produced several presidents, vice presidents and cabinet members, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and President Barack Obama.
Many senators use social media to build a wider audience in an attempt to bolster their national appeal. Texas Senator Ted Cruz discusses the news on his popular podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz. And Senator Jon Ossoff’s TikTok videos get millions of likes.
Senators often lean into partisan confrontation to increase their media presence, said Michelle Swers, a professor of American government at Georgetown University.
“What gets the clicks in media and particularly in social media is if you’re being very confrontational,” she said. “And so that confrontational nature also kind of hurts the ability to compromise.”
Still, senators have a mixed record of getting elected to the White House. A longer tenure in office may be a detriment to their potential success, Swers said.
“You’re coming from an institution that’s not very popular,” she said. “So I think the longer you’ve been in it, the more people look at your record, and the more there is to criticize.”
Partisan divide
The partisan gridlock in the Senate has persisted for years. Republicans currently hold 53 seats. The Senate had a 50-50 split during President Joe Biden’s administration, with Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker.
The Senate hasn’t produced as much policy as a result. The filibuster – talking for what can seem like an eternity to delay or block a vote – is a tactic that senators in the minority party have used in the polarized political climate. Ending a filibuster, known as a cloture, requires at least three-fifths of the Senate’s approval.
This dynamic in the Senate has also impacted candidates. Voters are less likely to reward compromise, said Matt Dallek, a political historian and professor of political management at George Washington University.
“The financial incentives, the social media and other media incentives, are all aligned with the partisanship – and with avoiding a primary from an extreme flank,” Dallek said.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn was the lead Republican negotiator in the group of senators who worked on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Biden signed the bill into law in June 2022, a month after the Uvalde school shooting. The law provided funding for expanded mental health services at schools and enhanced federal background checks for gun buyers ages 18-20.
But Trump criticized the bill, calling Cornyn a RINO, or a “Republican in name only” in a post on Truth Social. Trump later endorsed Paxton over Cornyn in the GOP runoff a week before election day, calling him “a MAGA warrior” in a post on Truth Social. Cornyn, he said, waited too long to endorse him in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
“John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” Trump said.
Paxton won the GOP nomination with about 64% of the vote.
Campaign promises
Talarico and Paxton have both said they would enact legislation to lower costs if elected.
Talarico’s economic plan, titled the New American Dream, includes raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and increasing taxes on billionaires and corporations. Paxton’s economic proposals include a $25,000 tax deduction for medical expenses and a $50,000 tax deduction for first-time home buyers.
The factors blocking policymaking could be difficult to overcome after the election. Neither party is expected to gain a supermajority. At best, senators in the majority might have a narrow hold over the Senate.
Will the victor on election day be able to deliver on the issues raised during the campaign? The answer may be a firm no – or at least, far less than voters may be hoping for.
Politicians often over promise on the campaign trail, said Thomas Gray, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas.
“They’re all talking about what would happen in this imaginary world where my party wins 70% of the seats, and the filibuster is not an issue and we’re not having to negotiate with the president,” Gray said.
It’s not unusual for candidates to pledge to voters more than they can deliver. Campaign messaging, Gray said, is focused on getting voters to hit the polls, not the complexities of legislating in a partisan environment.
“You could be the most altruistic person, you could have the best ideas and you could want the absolute best for everybody,” he said. “And if you lose, it doesn’t matter. So you have to win before you can actually bring any of those things about.”
The consequence could be dissatisfied voters in the next election, as Trump is now facing in the midterm election two years after he told voters his administration would improve the economy while on the campaign trail.
There are still some ways to enact policy through appropriations bills, legislation the Senate has to pass for funding purposes. Senators can use the partisan divide to their advantage and leverage their vote to get things they want for their state – money for an infrastructure project or a tax deduction.
Still, getting every piece of legislation promised to voters on the campaign trail across the finish line is an unlikely achievement for a newly elected senator, Gray said.
“For most freshmen, especially a freshman in the minority party in the Senate, you’re looking at zero or one thing,” he said. “And if you look at their list, they’ll have things like naming a post office.”
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