With a changing climate that can swing from torrential rains to scorching, dry skies, regional water planners face growing pressures to meet increased water demands in Texas.
Now they're asking residents to weigh in on plans to improve future supplies, including a controversial proposed reservoir project that has been part of a decades-long debate over water demands and property rights.
But experts say statewide planners must take into account both a changing climate and explosive population growth as part of their plans.
"The combination of rapidly increasing population and these warming temperatures and what it means for increasing drought in Texas, it's like the perfect rainless storm of challenges that we're facing," said Robert Mace, executive director the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University.
No more 'easy water'
Mace said those challenges include more frequent "droughts of record" that surpass the length of previously recorded droughts.
Water planning in Texas has typically been based on the drought of record, which was a severe drought that lasted for seven years in the 1950s.
Currently, nearly 30% of Texas is experiencing "extreme drought," according to the U.S. drought monitor. Another 16% is under an "exceptional drought."
"If the warming continues, the expectation is that we're going to see less water coming into our rivers, which means less water coming into our reservoirs," Mace said.
He added that with some cities and counties in the state expected to triple or quadruple in population over the next 50 years, the "easy water" is gone.
"So to ... meet this increased growth, you know, there's going to have to be some big water," Mace said.
That includes reservoirs, which Mace said is one option to meet those needs.
Interregional conflict
The Texas Water Development Board's Region C planning group, which represents North Central Texas, is undergoing a public comment period for residents to give feedback on its 50-year, $49 billion plan.
It includes an estimate of future water demands looking ahead into 2080 when the region's population is expected to reach over 15 million people. It also includes the proposed Marvin Nichols reservoir in Northeast Texas, which has seen strong opposition from residents in Northeast Texas.
Dan Buhman, chair of the Region C water planning group, said planners are cautious about including reservoirs as part of the region's water management plan.
"Our goal is to help people understand that our first strategy is to use every drop we already have to the fullest extent we can, and see if we can delay or even make those reservoirs unnecessary," he said.
Buhman said the plan also includes more conservation and water reuse efforts, but the reservoir is not off the table.
"As we continue to grow, they [reservoirs] will have to be part of that solution going forward," Buhman.
In February, the Region D planning group, which represents the location of the proposed Marvin Nichols reservoir in Northeast Texas, made its opposition clear in its own water plan.
"The Region D Water Planning Group does not think it is possible that the plan for this project protects the agriculture and natural resources of the state when so much agriculture and timberland will be inundated," Jim Thompson, chair of Region D, said in a February interview.
Last month, the disagreement boiled over into an interregional conflict after a unanimous vote by Region D's board, according to The Dallas Morning News. If the conflict isn't resolved by the October deadline for water plans to be finalized, both groups will have to change their plans to exclude mention of the project.
There are also efforts by northeast Texas legislators to remove the project completely from the state water plan.
Each planning group will hold at least one public hearing on their water management plans. Region D's hearing is scheduled for May 14 and Region C's hearing is scheduled for May 19.
Pablo Arauz Peña is KERA's growth and infrastructure reporter. Got a tip? Email Pablo at parauzpena@kera.org.
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