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How do you measure the effectiveness of a consumer boycott?

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

President Trump's attacks on diversity, equity and inclusion programs in the federal government have led many corporations like Target to ditch their own DEI policies. The big-box store now faces a boycott over its decision. Wailin Wong and Julia Ritchey from The Indicator explain whether these kinds of boycotts work.

JULIA RITCHEY, BYLINE: While Target is bearing the brunt of the backlash, it's not the first brand to face a consumer boycott for seeming to roll over for the Trump administration. Trump's first term was notorious for these kinds of stories - stories that Jura Liaukonyte began studying. She's a professor of marketing at Cornell University. And the first consumer boycott she studied was the Hispanic food company Goya.

WAILIN WONG, BYLINE: So in 2020, former Goya Foods CEO Robert Unanue made a friendly appearance with Trump in the Rose Garden to promote Hispanic and Latino entrepreneurs.

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ROBERT UNANUE: We're all truly blessed, at the same time, to have a leader like President Trump, who is a builder.

WONG: His flattery irked a lot of people on the left, so many boycotted the brand. Meanwhile, conservatives were encouraged to add Goya to their grocery baskets.

RITCHEY: Jura and her co-authors crunched the numbers to find out which side came out on top.

JURA LIAUKONYTE: It was a boost in sales - around 20%. But it was very short-lived.

WONG: Jura says it's hard to directly correlate how much of this bump was customers rallying to Goya's side, but the numbers showed a disproportionately higher increase in sales in Republican-leaning counties. This observation led Jura and her colleagues to develop a sort of framework for how to determine whether a boycott will be effective economically. Factor No. 1, who are the brand's core customers and does the brand's stance conflict with those consumers?

RITCHEY: Factor 2, can you swap this brand easily for something else? Jura calls this factor substitutability.

WONG: Oh, say that three times fast.

RITCHEY: No way. And this factor played a big role in another boycott she studied on Bud Light.

WONG: You may remember, in April of 2023, Bud Light and its parent, Anheuser-Busch, came under fire for a partnership with trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney.

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DYLAN MULVANEY: And Bud Light sent me possibly the best gift ever - a can with my face on it.

RITCHEY: Bud Light sales did take a steep and prolonged hit in the months that followed. And Jura says it's probably because it was easier for consumers to substitute another domestic beer, like Coors or Miller Light.

WONG: For the Target boycott, Jura says this substitutability factor is likely to determine whether the retailer feels ongoing pressure from customers in the long run. We reached out to Target to ask if the retailer was reconsidering its decision on its DEI policies. The company responded with an email saying it has an ongoing commitment to creating a welcoming environment for all team members, guests and suppliers.

RITCHEY: These policy rollbacks aren't just a consideration for a politically engaged customer base. It also affects Target's vendors - take Rucker Roots. It's a Black-owned natural hair care company from Lancaster County, South Carolina. They launched in 2018 and are now carried in stores nationwide. Owner Ellen Rucker Sellers says all of this is making her uneasy.

ELLEN RUCKER SELLERS: For me, it's so scary because a lot of times, when you are a supplier, you are planning on having inventory for these retailers up to, you know, six to nine months prior.

WONG: Ellen's co-owner and sister, Ione Rucker Jamison, is discouraged by the DEI rollbacks, but conflicted on the boycott.

IONE RUCKER JAMISON: You know, don't boycott so much that these Black businesses that are worked - blood, sweat and tears, that they will go bankrupt from these boycotts because then that's just not the right strategy that we want to see.

RITCHEY: Julia Ritchey.

WONG: Wailin Wong, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Julia Ritchey